Indyref – a Quarter.

Today’s (yesterday’s) polls indicate that a quarter of labour supporters would vote Yes at the referendum.

Excluding don’t know’s it’s 45 % yes to 55% no. The demographics on no voters seem to be toward women and elderly in particular.

There’s a tipping point needed, I’m yet to hear of people being converted to the no campaign from yes, although I’ve seen/read/heard about a drift from no to don’t know or don’t know to yes.

Cameron’s plea from Olympic Park, London and Osborne’s ‘no you can’t have our pound’ seemed to spark some interest and drift toward yes.

Recently Brown entered the debate with a muddy devomax after no option under a new ‘United with Labour’ banner that seems a step aside from the better together bedfellows of the No Campaign.

Anyway, that Quarter. There are organised labour for Indy or further left wing groups supporting independence. Old school socialists like Sillars and Canavan, the undoubted speaking brilliance of Sheridan and others in the SSP or RIC campaigning on independence as a means to escape the shackles of further austerity.

But so far, no breaks in the MP’s, MSP’s or Councillors in Labour’s ranks in Scotland.

Normally. a diverse group with a range of leanings, opinions and views.

They’ve been quiet in terms of any doubts in the Unionist position, although, can it be easy seeing Balls and Osborne cozy up on the currency union.

But why? Is it Party discipline? Or a grievance about the ’99 Yes-Yes vote where they carried the work? a sullen-ness that the SNP have governed Scotland without too much error or scandal and have kept their lead in party opinion polls? Is it self protection? An arrogance that they can ride out the referendum and get Milliband to deliver devo-max?

It’s been remarkable. No back bencher in Westminster or Holyrood going rogue. Not one saying ‘well, actually I agree with Sillars or Sheridan or Canavan’.

Is it too good to be true or will there be a tipping point?

Certainly a risk for a sitting MSP or MP to throw themselves out of the party machinery and it seems that there is more than a few sitting on the sideline and not actively pushing themselves forward for the media.

Is the new Brown launch of a Labour ‘No’ group more comfortable to support and easier than the pan-unionist political position with the Tories and their coalition partner.

They will have considered if a post-independence Scotland would again turn to Labour?

There are murmurs about Lamont, but no mutiny as yet.

If Yes Scotland are to succeed, then the Labour vote has to crack and slide toward independence and in all likelihood, it would need at least a few dissidents to see past their party position.

Developing beyondthat Quarter of the Labour supporters is important, but equally getting the message to the


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