I don’t see the sanctions biting on the Russians – after all they did the Cold War food shortages stuff and now have accumulated a s**t-load of hard currency across the world.
It’s not the early nineties, where a quick scare will send Ivan back to his vodka (or whatever crap analogy you have in mind)
Putin has rearmed his forces, he has effective control, no-one will challenge him internally and from an opportunist situation over Ukraine and Crimea, hrs got his prize pretty much unchallenged and has legitimised it to his home audience.
Will he care that there’s no longer a G8? – certainly not for as long as the ‘G7’ invite in Putin ‘s foreign minister.
The West blinked,it blustered, it talked the diplomacy. The Russians went and got what they wanted, Putin remains strong to his country, he’s brought back territory that resonates with his people.
Ukraine will continue to be destabilised. Russia had it by the goolies and simply won’t be letting go any time soon.
The future may even split west/east on it’s European/Russian leanings which strangely enough despite wars and communist deprivation, the lines echo territory that was in the Austrian and German Empires before Wotld War I against territory held then by the Russian Empire.
Can Ukraine survive as only a western rump? Would it make sense to align closer to Poland?
One thing is for sure. It isn’t over, but can diplomacy and sanctions win out over boots and rifles on the ground.