so, Numbers.. (I messed around on an app to create my first draft as below)
4.2 million electorate.
At March 2014, the General Register Office for Scotland had a figure of 4,120,494 electors with addition of 121,276 16 and 17 year olds with possibly more unregistered.
Turnout expected to be high.
Speculation is that over 70% is likely and some polling has it nearer 80%. This may or may not pan out.
Question is could it?
75.5% 1992 UK General Election (Scotland)
63.8% 2010 UK General Election (Scotland)
63.8% 1979 Scottish Devolution Referendum
60.4% 1997 Scottish Devolution Referendum
50.6% 2011 Scottish Parliamentary Election
I left this one out. as I’m skeptical.
93.5% 1995 Quebec Independence Referendum
A Turnout at that level would be mind-blowing.
so, based on that, lets speculate..
50% Turnout – 2.1 Million voters
60% Turnout – 2.5 Million voters
65% Turnout – 2.7 Million voters
70% Turnout – 2.9 Million voters
75% Turnout – 3.1 Million voters
80% Turnout – 3.3 Million voters
85% Turnout – 3.5 Million voters
Last Weekend, Yes Scotland confirmed they had 1 Million sign their declaration, if all follow through their pledge, its not so difficult for yes to get near the winning line.
In quite a few of those turnout scenarios, starting with, say, a 75% Turnout, Yes would need an additional 450,000 votes to hit the 50% line.
650,000 for an 80% turnout and 750,000 for 85% turnover.
The bookies reckon on 77.5% turnout as an optimum figure, so effectively, that’s 3.25 million active voters and Yes would need more than 1,625,000 supporters to win.
The Yes Declaration figures, if voters do follow through, are most helpful, and to an extent this is a bit strange, of a lower turnout of voters.
That Million might in actuality, on the day, be lower.
Things happen, but bear in mind that the Declaration people are slightly more motivated as they have already went and made that pledge.
Informally, I have seen a fair number of Yes supporters on Social Media say that they haven’t signed the Declaration for whatever reason, so that Million could be nudged upwards by a few hundred thousand.
Yes could be sitting with, say 1.2 to 1.5 Million supporters as we currently stand after the two Salmond/Darling Debates.
The No camp claimed an unverified petition that had a Million signatures as well last weekend, but double counting or non eligible supporters could be a factor with that.
So, our numbers game is this.
4.2 Million electors.
77.5% as a turnout (3,255,000)
and to win, either side needs 1,627,000.
As a supporter of Yes, I hope the declared Million is as near that as possible, say 900,000 with a bit of wasteage.
I also hope that the Undeclared Yes support is at the higher end of my guesswork with, say, 450,000 and that would mean a committed support of about 1.3 Million for Yes and that is roughly 40% on the assumed turnout.
I’ve not talked Undecideds or Soft Yes’s or Soft No’s, I have no doubt that the motivation to take part and to vote will see some people deciding, quite literally, with the pencil in hand.
My guess is that committed no’s and naw’s will come out and vote whatever the circumstances.
I think there’s certainly at least 700,000 definite for them and that could easily be higher, but I don’t believe the ‘Million on the Petition’.
So, can Yes persuade approximately 350,000 more people to get a narrow majority win in the referendum?
Could the current momentum get them a much more decisive margin?
or do we see a very narrow no win as some are currently suggesting?
Me? I dunno. we’ll see on the day in terms of Turnout and attitude.