51/49.. Numbers redux.

4.2 million electorate.

At March 2014, 4,120,494 electors with addition of 121,276 16 and 17 year olds with possibly more unregistered.

Past elections/referendums

75.5% 1992 UK General Election (Scotland)
63.8% 2010 UK General Election (Scotland)
63.8% 1979 Scottish Devolution Referendum
60.4% 1997 Scottish Devolution Referendum
50.6% 2011 Scottish Parliamentary Election

Figures from http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/indyref-turnout-betting/

50% Turnout – 2.1 Million voters
60% Turnout – 2.5 Million voters
65% Turnout – 2.7 Million voters
70% Turnout – 2.9 Million voters
75% Turnout – 3.1 Million voters
80% Turnout – 3.3 Million voters
85% Turnout – 3.5 Million voters

Yes Scotland previously confirmed they had 1 Million sign their declaration

The bookies reckon on 77.5% turnout as an optimum figure, so effectively, that’s 3.25 million active voters and Yes would need more than 1,625,000 supporters to win.

Yes could be sitting with more on declaration and more unsigned.

So, our numbers game is this.

4.2 Million electors.

77.5% as a turnout (3,255,000)

and to win, either side needs 1,627,000.

As a supporter of Yes, I hope the declaration is at 1.4 million as has been recently speculated

I also hope that the Undeclared Yes support is at the higher end of my guesswork with, say, 450,000 or so.

Then we have our friends that have newly registered to vote. Why register to vote for no change?

I’ve not talked Undecideds or Soft Yes’s or Soft No’s,

As I keep saying there will be a factor of people deciding with pencil on hand too.

I wouldn’t say yet that yes has won, but I’d be thinking it is do-able and to keep working on getting the message over.


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