Magic Numbers?

I’ve covered some of this before..

4.285 million electorate is confirmed.

Up from the March 2014 estimate by the General Registars for Scotland of 4,120,494 electors.

121,276 of that may be the 16 and 17 year olds and at least 40,000 voters have been added presumably as a result of canvassing campaigns.

Previous Turnouts at elections/referendums.

75.5% 1992 UK General Election (Scotland)
63.8% 2010 UK General Election (Scotland)
63.8% 1979 Scottish Devolution Referendum
60.4% 1997 Scottish Devolution Referendum
50.6% 2011 Scottish Parliamentary Election

So numbers..

50% Turnout – 2.14 Million voters
60% Turnout – 2.57 Million voters
65% Turnout – 2.78 Million voters
70% Turnout – 2.99 Million voters
75% Turnout – 3.21 Million voters
80% Turnout – 3.43 Million voters

Rule out the numbers below we’re looking at north of 85% based on today, been busy so far.

85% Turnout – 3.64 Million voters

So, our numbers game could be.

4,285,343 electors.

85% as a turnout (3,642,542)

and to win, either side needs more than 1,821,271. That’s the 50% line

A more convincing 60% win is 2,185,525.

At 90% it’s insane. 3,856,808 would have voted

That 50% line is 1,928,404.

A 60% win on a 90% turnout?
2,314,084 votes.

Are we going to see an insanely high turnout and a margin of victory?

My gut has been saying that yes could possibly poll over 2 Million, in the right circumstances, for a little while. But my head has been denying it, thinking it’s crazy, mad, insane.

I doubt anyone at the yes campaign has projected that sort of number as a realistic prospect. I’m struggling to.

Are the polls THAT wrong? That’s an additional point, the 48-52 picks up a demographic, they’re not wrong in terms of who they polled, but is that selection wide enough?

Are we headed into magic numbers territory here?


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