45% and 52%

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

54 SNP MP’s, 4 Labour, 1 Lib Dem. based on that.

The 45% Yes in a referendum isn’t the same as the 52% intending voting SNP.

It’s too simple saying a 7% shift.

Yes were never just SNP, so some greater shift is behind the polling.

Some of the 45% were labour or liberal or green.

Any collapse of the labour position from 2010 is for numerous reasons not just a disaffected post referendum electorate.

It’s interesting in this poll that the SNP polled so high. Will it be repeated?

But..the assuming it does continue through to next May.. Is it enough, across and through every constituency?

Will pockets in an election still vote labour through loyalty to the local person?

Is it still too far out for next May?

It probably is too far out and a reaction to the betrayal of ‘The Vow’.

Would a 40+ number of MP’s give enough mandate for a group including presumably Alex Salmond to have a balance of power at Westminster in a near hung election?

Which leads to – should they? Holding a formal coalition had destroyed the Liberal Democrats standing and prospects.

I’m not sure if I’d like a bloc of SNP MP’s propping up any labour government given the antics of all unionist parties over last 5 years.
(I’m guessing they wouldn’t support a Tory/ukip grouping)

Could they hold out and vote issue by issue?

I’d guess that if every Scottish constituency elected a SNP MP, there’s an argument for UDI, but can that happen? Is it feasible without another referendum?

Next May is a long way away. An onslaught from the Scottish Media will chip away at that poll result whoever gets the post as branch manager of the Labour Party in Scotland.

The loaded dice of the Smith Commission will be played before the election too.

Their Devo-Max May be enough for some.

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