I stumbled a bit today looking inside my twitter timeline.
I saw this. It had be quietly ironically retweeted, so I looked on the timeline of that ‘person’.
Yes, a stream advocating tactical voting in Scotland against the SNP.
‘There’s something bigger going on in the GE in Scotland.’
Obviously there’s a tactical voting wheel. (As lampooned in the 2015 General Election.)
But with more detail, there’s even a seat by seat chart.
Now, this vastly differs from the Tactical Voting advocated by Gina Miller and those who speak about a ‘progressive alliance’.
The chart works on the basis of a 13% swing.
I’ll say that again a Thirteen Percent Swing.
I’ve thrown in these images as Squirrels as a distraction.
Swing, Baby, Swing..
A THIRTEEN PERCENT SWING.
Yes and to add to the fun it’s based on this year’s low turnout at the Council elections. (The small. Small print on the chart)
Now, that was an election on a proportional representation basis, not first past the post.
In a first past the post election, an incumbent only falls on small swings. One percent, two percent, three percent?
It was reckoned Michael Portillo was 3% ahead just prior to his loss in 1997, it was a huge 17% swing over the course of five years from the previous election.
The UK General Election.
I don’t want to guess too much on any swing against the SNP. I think there’s multiple factors at play. I’d guess at following.
1. Anti-Tory sentiment.
2. The rise of Corbyn.
3. Brexit guilt.
It’s a UK election on UK factors. The recent events of terror in Manchester and London complicate matters too.
On the first, there’s a weariness in terms of Theresa May, her campaign’s slide. Poor media performances and a general issue in terms of competence and ability.
Jeremy Corbyn has campaigned well, he’s been recognised by the public and his interview appearances generally have helped.
Brexit has been recognised as a factor and played on greatly by the Liberal Democrats. It’s a factor in people’s thoughts as there’s no real plan and a creep in economic factors like inflation and the decreased value of the pound.
In 2015 we got 56 SNP, 1 Tory, 1 LD, 1 Labour.
Labour’s issue is that the SNP ‘took’ ‘their’ Scottish Seats. What was once a large group.
It’s a very helpful number when you’re fighting an election on overall terms.
The loss or reduction to single digits even if there are any gains in Scotland makes winning a majority tougher and puts the emphasis on England and Wales.
There’s also been an internal bun fight with Ian Murray previously refusing to serve as Corbyn’s shadow Scottish Secretary and a divide in views between the London party and the Scottish Party.
For the Tories, there may be opportunities and there may be loss. It’s went quiet around David Mundell, possibly he faces a contest of his own to retain his seat.
Ironically, his party may gain ground or take other seats. Talk of Thirteen or Seventeen Tory seats is likely just to be talk.
There’s opportunities in the Borders, Edinburgh and North East though and it may or may not happen but will be where the SNP have concentrated activity.
The Liberal Democrats have an issue in a politician that, shall we say, fell out with his constituents. Again, the possibility exists that the party might gain whilst the incumbent MP loses. Again, Edinburgh, The Borders and North-East are most fertile possibilities.
Most polling is UK wide and there’s extrapolated data for Scotland with degrees of reliability.
It’s thought the SNP may retain the majority of the 56 seats. It’s likely to be 50 plus, nothing I’ve seen says all 59.
The dynamic of campaigning might see Murray and Mundell survive with some attrition in SNP numbers, possibly a few. Possibly not.
In the cold light of day, there’s little in common between the Scottish Tories, Lib-Dems and Labour.
It may well be that certain candidates are ‘paper’ as there’s little hope of defeating the SNP across large parts of the country.
I don’t think the chart or tactical voting wheel are seriously looked at. I don’t think the parties have co-ordinated between themselves.
There may be tacit truces in places where one party has a serious chance against the SNP in a constituency or in those three constituencies that are being ‘defended’.
We are some distance from a ‘Union Block’, the noise made on Twitter and Facebook is just that.
Individuals tweeting behind aliases and groups tweeting their viewpoints. As you’ll see it’s bitter.
I’m not going to hide my distaste, but it’s comment and free speech. Not my thing to get into.
So.. the clock ticks down to Thursday. Hopefully we have good news in terms of Manchester and London investigations and we also have a trouble free Election Day.