I’ve no enthusiasm for writing on the June 2017 General Election, so this is going to be ‘A Cold Take’, I want to be dispassionate and factual as far as I can.
Let’s start with the Map. It was 2015’s favourite image for the Yes community.
Not as fun in 2017. Tory gains in Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and much of what was Grampian Region together with the clumps of Stirling and Ochils and South Perthshire are obvious.
There’s red for Labour in Fife, Lothians and Glasgow. Orange Lib Dem gain in Caithness and Sutherland.
It’s not one the SNP will enjoy, the constituencies lost are large territories when seen in a map graphic.
Another comment to make is the merged blue of the borderlands.
Next up, the change in vote share from 2015 to 2017.
Obviously to lose seats The SNP are down and again obviously, the Tories are up.
There’s a small gain by Labour and a small loss by the Lib Dems.
But, and this is the ‘no shit sherlock’ bit, 13% SNP loss and 13% Tory gain.
A switcheroo? Possibly, but did 13% of SNP voters go directly Tory?
Some, might want you to think that. I wouldn’t.
Here’s Turnout. Generally the darker, the more it was.
Look at central Scotland diagonally upwards from the crook of Galloway to the outcrop of Fife. All lighter colours.
I’ll admit to disliking these hexagons, but across much of Scotland the turnout was down, as in grey, and in some areas really badly as in black.
It doesn’t match the actual geography well but it tells the story better than the physical map coloured up.
This baddy shows the seats that changed hands. It’s not dissimilar to the first map, but it’s clarity is in showing the wins/losses.
The SNP did hang onto a lot of seats. Tory gains are big in area, Labour gains are threatening Glasgow and Edinburgh, and the Lib Dem ones seem rather random.
Key points from all those maps and graphs.
- The SNP lost 21 Seats
- The Tories gained 13.
- Labour gained 6.
- Lib Dems gained 3.
- Scottish Turnout 66.4%
- UK turnout 68.7%
- SNP largest party 35/59 seats
- SNP took 38.9% of votes
So, that’s the inconvenient truths out the way, most important is that turnout was down across the country.
One example is Glasgow North. Paul Sweeney won the seat with 242 votes on a 50.3% turnout.
Contrast with Ian Murray holding his Edinburgh South seat on a 74.1% turnout.
East Lothian 70.6% Labour Gain.
Aberdeen North 59.2% SNP hold.
Aberdeen South 68.5% Tory Gain.
Aberdeenshire West 71.2% Tory Gain.
Coatbridge etc. 63.3% Labour Gain, Majority 1,586.
Airdrie and Shotts 59.2% SNP hold, Majority 195.
The script from me here is:-
- Motivated versus unmotivated voters in a constituency, see Aberdeen North and South and the shire part seat.
- Targeted gains by parties
- Narrow SNP gains AND losses
- Labour’s defence of Murray in Edinburgh on a higher turnout and unexpected win in Glasgow on a near 50% turnout
- Lanarkshire on a knife edge, a swing one way is a hold, another is a Labour Gain.
We can talk politics to the interested.
Truth is a long campaign when added with the local council elections probably didn’t make people want to bother. An eight week long campaign all told.
We know the Tories were biggest gainers, but hey, who called it in first place?
Defending Seats is a harder task than gaining. People are motivated by change. Not so much by keeping in the guy you have.
Tactical Voting played a part. Labour and Lib Dem voters came out and voted Tory. They were as good as told to. No need for tactical Voting wheels.
The graphics used by the Tories worked. They weren’t always strictly the situation, but the public grasped that they could make their dent in an incumbent SNP seat.
I, called it wrong before Thursday night. I didn’t think there could be more than 10 losses for the SNP. I thought the exit poll was a stinker, I was way wrong.
The obviously noisy seats were ones that Labour, Tories and Lib Dems were after. The ones where the activity was greatest and resources were thrown into.
Labour may have benefited from Jeremy Corbyn’s appeal which is ironic given Ian Murray refusing to serve in his Shadow Cabinet and the mainly Blairite leadership in Scotland opposing him. The ‘for the many’ slogan appeared in Scotland in a photo opportunity after the Election.
For me the ‘ failure’ from the SNP and loss of seats was for these reasons.
- Timing of election. The GE followed hard on the Council elections and the party had its eye on both elections.
- Opponent targeting. The Tories clearly have software and data and used it well. They went for bang for buck. It wasn’t entirely opportunist, but they had benefit of knowing when election would be and they used it.
- Corbyn effect. He attracted soft ‘yes’ voters. It changed some seats and dented majorities in others.
- ‘No second referendum’ – it played louder than a message on Brexit or the competence and ability of the SNP MP group
- The echo chamber of social media. Again, SNP supporters and Yessers hear each other very clearly but not the whole noise pattern.
- Turnout. Grass roots canvassing got lots of sentiment on the doorsteps, but didn’t work to make voters come out. In some seats this was disastrous and particularly reflects in the turnouts in the central belt of Scotland.
- Resource. Targeting seats to defend is one thing, but big hitters like Angus Robertson, Alex Salmond and John Nicholson were targeted by the SNPs opponents and tumbled. In contrast Alistair Carmichael and David Mundell held on against good candidates.
I’m not an SNP member. I’ve no reason to sugar coat it and hopefully I’ve been truthful and useful in my analysis.
The key seems to be find a clear message, stick with it. Analyse each seat, get turnout.
It’s tough when the national media do leader interviews based on competence in devolved matters.
It’s tough when Labour come from dead to having an appealing socialist message. (Stealing a few policies)
It’s tough when the Tories out-bastard you.
They certainly did and the good people of the north east of Scotland may need reminded about Free Prescriptions, care for elderly, university tuition etc etc as clearly they’ve taken heed of a distaste for a second referendum but might not know why it’s needed.
Personality attack aren’t nice, but there’s a cult of nicknames around the First Minister as there was with her predecessor. It’s not nice, but being nice doesn’t get you what you want.
The Tories weren’t slaughtered on Brexit. Weren’t slaughtered on the effects of losing EU membership and weren’t slaughtered over Benefits and the uncaring society created since 2010.
Labour weren’t slaughtered on being a shambles for the last seven years. They weren’t slaughtered for being unionist. They weren’t slaughtered for meekly accepting brexit.
In a Westminster election, the SNP aren’t a party of government. There’s no record to defend, no case to answer. If people aren’t happy, it’s the Tory Government. If they’re unhappy on a devolved matter, well you’ve mitigated the Tory cuts.
I’ll admit my disappointment and my surprise at the results.
If there’s another election in October, Plenty can be gained, it’s there to take back, but get your voters out and motivated. Target.
Drive at Labour and Tories on their failings and inconsistencies. Defend Scotref robustly. What other option is there if the bananas brexit referendum is to be applied?
Be clear, consistent, go beyond the TV and papers. Don’t trust Twitter as a medium. Use data. Use maps, use numbers.
Here endith my chill.